India gets nuclear submarine

India will launch its first nuclear submarine later this month, the Financial Times reports.

The submarine would add India to a short list of countries with the capability to launch a nuclear strike from the sea.

Read full story.

U.S. marines launch major Afghan offensive

U.S. marines launched today a military offensive to retake the Helmand River Valley in south-western Afghanistan from Taliban militants.

The U.S. military says this operation is the largest since its invasion of Fallujah, Iraq, in 2004. The focus of the offensive will be bolstering local Afghan governments and protecting civilians. Pakistan says it deployed troops to a stretch of its border to prevent insurgents from fleeing across.

Reuters provides a Q&A on the new military offensive.

Read full story.

Mossad says Iran to have nuclear weapon by 2014

The head of the Mossad has said that Iran will be able to launch its first nuclear weapon by 2014.

Meir Dagan, the Israeli intelligence agency chief, told a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “If the project has no technical glitches, and if Iran’s program does not malfunction in any way, they will have a bomb to launch by 2014. This is a significant existential threat for the State of Israel. We must distance this threat.”

Meir Dagan also said that the current unrest in Iran over the disputed results of last week’s presidential election was “an internal matter” and that it would soon die down. He said the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would make it easier for Israel to explain to the world the significance of the threat of Iran gaining nuclear capability. He also pointed out to the committee that it was actually the more moderate candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had actually started Iran’s nuclear program when he was prime minister.

D-Day – June 6, 1944: The Meaning of the Supreme Sacrifice of Heroes and Guardians of Freedom

 

Let Our Hearts Be Stout – Roosevelt D-Day Prayer

My Fellow Americans,

Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our Allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.

They will need Thy blessings. Their road will be long and hard. For the enemy is strong. He may hurl back our forces. Success may not come with rushing speed, but we shall return again and again; and we know that by Thy grace, and by the righteousness of our cause, our sons will triumph.

They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest – until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men’s souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and goodwill among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

And for us at home – fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas, whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them – help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

Many people have urged that I call the nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

Give us strength, too – strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

And, O Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in Thee; faith in our sons; faith in each other; faith in our united crusade. Let not the keeness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment – let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogances. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace – a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

Thy will be done, Almighty God. Amen.

U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt – June 6, 1944

North Korea Alert

Yonhap News Agency reports the United States of America and South Korea have increased their alert level toward North Korea and have ramped up surveillance following Pyongyang’s decision to scrap the treaty halting the Korean War.

The BBC has a news analysis attempting to gauge North Korea’s game plan. 

In a strategic paper published by the U.S. War Army College, experts Colonel Ray Midkiff and Dr. James Downey address the policy options available to influence North Korea.

Read full story.

USA and Russia open nuclear arms reduction talks

The United States and Russia begin three days of talks today aimed at hammering out a deal to replace the 1991 START treaty and structure further cuts to their respective nuclear arsenals.

A graphic in the Economist shows how many nuclear weapons different countries have.

Read full story.

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at risk

The New York Times reports today that Washington is increasingly concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal, including the potential of militants to steal a weapon or otherwise infiltrate nuclear laboratories or fuel-production facilities.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for Sufi Mohammad, the radical and increasingly influential Muslim cleric in Pakistan, said the Taliban would not lay down their arms in the Malakand region unless government military operations there are halted.

Read full story.

How Obama’s America Might Threaten Israel

Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East is very distressing: several coldness to Israeli diplomats by the Obama administration already; the appointment of senior officials who hate Israel (e.g. Chas Freeman); repeated expressions of hostility to the elected Likud government of Israel; considerable favouring to Arab tyrants and anti-American autocrats around the world; pressure on Israel not to pre-empt Iran; re-naming the war on terror “overseas contingency operations” against “man made disasters;“ budget cutting on missile defense and other projects.

Commentary magazine has a new, powerful piece by lifetime pro-Israel American writer Norman Podhoretz, entitled How Obama’s America Might Threaten Israel, raising many of these concerns.

“Is there a threat to Israel from the United States under Barack Obama? The question itself seems perverse. For in spite of the hostility to Israel in certain American quarters, this country has more often than not been the beleaguered Jewish state’s only friend in the face of threats coming from others. Nor has the young Obama administration been any less fervent than its last two predecessors in declaring an undying commitment to the security and survival of Israel.”

Read full story.

Fears About Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

As militancy grows in Pakistan, U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

The Washington Times reports that the military controls the country’s nuclear stockpile, so any scenario that changes the balance of power in the military – from a coup to a Taliban takeover – could endanger the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Read full story.

New NATO Members: Security Consumers or Producers?

The issue of burden-sharing in NATO is as relevant today as it was when the alliance was originally founded in 1949. A new study written by Colonel Joel R.  Hillison, current Director of National Security Studies in the Department of Distance Education at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, examines how well new NATO members are contributing to the alliance.

Lessons learned apply directly to current burden-sharing debates and provide insights into future burden-sharing opportunities and challenges.

Read full story.

CIA announces end of secret prisons

Leon Edward Panetta, the new director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, said yesterday in a message to CIA employees that the agency would shut down its remaining secret prisons overseas, The New York Times reports.

Secret CIA prisons, or “black sites”, had become one of the more controversial tactics used by the George W. Bush administration in its counterterrorism strategy. Three prisoners at CIA prisons were famously subjected to “waterboarding” in 2002 and 2003, and a report by the International Red Cross released this week detailed the treatment of fourteen prisoners at the facilities and called them “inhuman” .

Here is the text of the report.

***

Statement to Employees by Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Leon E. Panetta on the CIA’s Interrogation Policy and Contracts

April 9, 2009

As you know, there is continuing media and congressional interest in reviewing past rendition, detention, and interrogation activities that took place dating back to 2002. I have also been asked about contract interrogators and detention facilities. Today, I sent a letter to our Congressional oversight committees outlining the Agency’s current policy regarding interrogation of captured terrorists, including the policy on the use of contractors in the process.

• CIA’s aggressive global pursuit of al-Qaida and its affiliates continues undiminished. Agency officers are working tirelessly – and successfully – to disrupt operations in strict accord with the President’s Executive Order of January 22, 2009, concerning detention and interrogation.

• CIA officers, whose knowledge of terrorist organizations is second to none, will continue to conduct debriefings using a dialog style of questioning that is fully consistent with the interrogation approaches authorized and listed in the Army Field Manual. CIA officers do not tolerate, and will continue to promptly report, any inappropriate behavior or allegations of abuse. That holds true whether a suspect is in the custody of an American partner or a foreign liaison service.

• Under the Executive Order, the CIA does not employ any of the enhanced interrogation techniques that were authorized by the Department of Justice from 2002 to 2009.

• No CIA contractors will conduct interrogations.

• CIA no longer operates detention facilities or black sites and has proposed a plan to decommission the remaining sites. I have directed our Agency personnel to take charge of the decommissioning process and have further directed that the contracts for site security be promptly terminated. It is estimated that our taking over site security will result in savings of up to $4 million.

• CIA retains the authority to detain individuals on a short-term transitory basis. None have occurred since I have become Director. We anticipate that we would quickly turn over any person in our custody to U.S. military authorities or to their country of jurisdiction, depending on the situation.

CIA’s focus will remain where the American people expect it to be-on the mission of protecting the country today and into the future. We will do that even as we cooperate with Congressional reviews of past interrogation practices. Officers who act on guidance from the Department of Justice – or acted on such guidance previously – should not be investigated, let alone punished. This is what fairness and wisdom require.

CIA will continue to honor the law as we defend the United States as we have done since the beginning of this program. That is what the men and women of this Agency demand. Together, we can, and will, do no less. Thank you for your service and dedication to protecting this nation.

Finally, let me take this opportunity to wish you and your families a Happy Easter and Passover.

Leon E. Panetta

MERCI DE GAULLE – Hommage national

Grande souscription nationale pour que vive et se transmette l’héritage du général de Gaulle

Plus que jamais, la Fondation Charles de Gaulle a besoin de votre aide pour promouvoir et développer le nouveau Mémorial Charles de Gaulle de Colombey-les-Deux-Églises.

Dans ce but, la Fondation Charles de Gaulle a lancé une grande campagne de souscription nationale “Merci de Gaulle” à laquelle un site est dédié.

Pour accéder au site “Merci de Gaulle”, cliquer ici.

Interview with U.S. General David Petraeus

U.S. General David Petraeus, in an interview with Fox News, said the U.S. military is putting “additional focus” on rooting out ties between Pakistan’s intelligence service and the Taliban. He also said the U.S. military reserves the “right of last resort” to take out threats inside Pakistan.

Read full story.

Der Geist von ZAHAL

Ethische Dilemmata während der Operation Gegossenes Blei

Als Staat hat Israel seit seiner Gründung gegen die Herausforderung des Terrors zu kämpfen gehabt. Trotz der großen Erfahrung, die die Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte (ZAHAL) gesammelt haben, sind die täglichen Herausforderungen, denen sie begegnen, weiterhin kompliziert und schaffen komplexe ethische Dilemmata.

Das internationale Recht basiert auf dem ‚klassischen’ Modell des Krieges zwischen zwei Armeen. Infolgedessen ist es eine große Herausforderung, existierende internationale Rechtsgrundsätze auf Konflikte mit Terrororganisationen anzuwenden. Sie können keine befriedigende Antwort auf die zahlreichen ethischen Dilemmata geben, die bei solchen Konflikten erwachsen.

Im Bemühen, ihre militärische Unterlegenheit wettzumachen, haben die Terrororganisationen systematische Strategien entwickelt, die das Unvermögen des internationalen Rechts in Bezug auf diese Fragen ausschlachten.

Dem Terrorismus sind der Wert des menschlichen Lebens und der Humanismus gleichgültig, sowohl was die eigene Nation angeht als auch seine Feinde. Aufgrund der fehlenden Verpflichtung gegenüber dem internationalen Recht fühlen sich die Terroristen frei von jeglichen ethischen oder moralischen Beschränkungen und operieren ohne jegliche internationale Überwachung.

Terrororganisationen versuchen, das Vorgehen der Feindstaaten zu delegitimieren. Sie erreichen dies, indem sie sich selbst als Opfer stilisieren. Dieses Bestreben wird dadurch gefördert, dass das Schlachtfeld in dicht bevölkerte Gebiete verlegt wird, wobei mit dem Endziel der Medienaufmerksamkeit eine Wirklichkeit von Tod und Elend erzeugt wird.

Die Operation Gegossenes Blei ist ein klassisches Beispiel für asymmetrische Kriegsführung. Die Hamas hat hierbei terroristische Verhaltensmuster mit zynischen Resultaten an den Tag gelegt.

Im Laufe der vergangenen zwei Jahre hat die Hamas ihre terroristische Infrastruktur mutwillig als inhärenten Teil der zivilen Infrastruktur aufgebaut (bspw. waren mehr als ein Drittel der 122 Häuser im Viertel Al-Attra mit Bomben bestückt). Während der Kämpfe wurden die Bewohner Gazas auf die Straßen gebracht, und die Hamas versteckte sich zwischen ihnen, in ziviler Kleidung, und machte sie dadurch zu menschlichen Schutzschilden. Alan Dershowitz hat dies als die „Tote-Baby-Strategie” der Hamas bezeichnet.

Der Terrorismus der Hamas wurde die gesamte Operation hindurch aufrechterhalten. Als die Übergänge für den Transfer humanitärer Hilfe geöffnet wurden, hat die Hamas sie absichtlich bombardiert. Als Hilfsgüter transferiert wurden, hat die Hamas sie erbeutet und nicht an die lokale Bevölkerung weitergegeben. Als die Kamphandlungen eingestellt wurden, um humanitäre Zeitfenster zu schaffen, hat die Hamas weiter geschossen und Zivilisten gefährdet, die sich nach draußen gewagt hatten. Und als Israel anbot, sich um die Verwundeten zu kümmern, hat die Hamas sich geweigert, sie zu überführen.

Als Staat hat Israel seit seiner Gründung gegen die Herausforderung des Terrors zu kämpfen gehabt. Trotz der großen Erfahrung, die die Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte (ZAHAL) gesammelt haben, sind die täglichen Herausforderungen, denen sie begegnen, weiterhin kompliziert und schaffen komplexe ethische Dilemmata.

Im Feld steht der Kommandant komplexen ethischen Dilemmata gegenüber, die sein persönliches Urteil dazu erfordern, ob er den Anti-Terror-Einsatz, der die lokale Bevölkerung gefährden könnte, fortsetzen oder ob er seine eigenen Soldaten und die Zivilisten, die zu beschützen er ausgesandt wurde, gefährden soll.

Um den ethischen Dilemmata des Krieges, vor allem solchen, die während der Terrorismusbekämpfung auftreten,  begegnen zu können, haben die Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte (ZAHAL) einen moralischen Code entwickelt („Der Geist von ZAHAL”). Dieser Code setzt sich aus den Werten zusammen, die der Gründung des Staates Israel innewohnten, den Werten der westlichen Demokratie und der Verpflichtung gegenüber dem internationalen Recht.

Der „Geist von ZAHAL” ist tief in die Grundausbildung jedes einzelnen Soldaten und Kommandanten der Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte  eingebaut. Die ethische Verantwortung unserer Soldaten widerspricht nicht der Notwendigkeit persönlicher Sicherheit – sie setzt einen hohen Standard für das persönliche Urteil beim Zielen auf Terroristen, die unter Zivilisten Schutz suchen.

Die Rechtsexperten der Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte haben jeden Aspekt der Operation begleitet, von der Planung bis zur Durchführung. Dies reflektiert die Anerkennung der Bedeutung der Einhaltung des internationalen Rechts als dem Entscheidungsprozess inhärenter Aspekt.

Vorbereitungen für potentielle ethische Dilemmata begannen bereits in der Planungsphase der Operation. Während der Operation wurden unzählige Maßnahmen ergriffen, um den Kollateralschaden an den Bewohnern des Gaza-Streifens zu minimieren: Mehr als 1 250 000 Flugblätter wurden verteilt, mehr als 165 000 Bewohner des Gaza-Streifens wurden vorab telefonisch gewarnt, und die „Anklopftechnik” wurde breitflächig angewandt.

Trotz des häufigen Kampfes in dicht bevölkerten Gebieten und des Missbrauchs von lokalen Bewohnern als menschliche Schutzschilde durch die Hamas verdeutlichen die Einschätzungen der Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte, dass der Großteil der Opfer bewaffnete Kämpfer waren (709 bewaffnete Kämpfer, 295 Zivilisten und 162 Personen, deren Grad der Involvierung noch geprüft wird).

Das Schlachtfeld ist ein Schauplatz, der für Fehler anfällig ist. Für die Israelischen Verteidigungsstreitkräfte  ist jeder Kollateralschaden an Zivilisten problematisch und wird untersucht, um aus den eigenen Fehlern zu lernen und die Kampfdoktrin für die Zukunft zu verbessern. Für die Hamas ist der Kollateralschaden sowohl an israelischen als auch palästinensischen Zivilisten ein Mittel zum Erreichen ihres Ziels.

Bis ein effektiver moralischer Code zur Regulierung des Kriegs gegen den Terror geschaffen sein wird, gibt es keine einzige und eindeutige Lösung für ethische Dilemmata. Die Dilemmata stellten eine Herausforderung dar, die von allen westlichen Armeen geteilt wird, eine Herausforderung, der man begegnen muss, um die demokratischen Kernwerte zu bewahren, die unsere Staaten prägen.

Es scheint so, als ob der Einsatz von menschlichen Schutzschilden durch Terror- und Guerillaorganisationen infolge der steigenden Verstädterung, der operationellen Vorteile einer solchen Umgebung und der internationalen Verurteilung von Anti-Terror-Aktivitäten in bewohnten Gebieten noch wachsen wird. Das schiere Ausmaß dieser Dilemmata wird noch zunehmen und nicht nur Israel und den Nahen Osten, sondern die internationale Gemeinschaft als Ganze betreffen. Insofern ist die globale Acht- und Aufmerksamkeit gegenüber dieser Angelegenheit unerlässlich.

Israelische Verteidigungsstreitkräfte

China reacts sharply to new U.S. military report

The BBC reports Beijing reacted sharply toward a U.S. Defense Department report that says China’s rapid development of its armed forces is dramatically shifting the power balance in Asia.

A foreign ministry spokesperson for China said the report represented a “gross distortion of the facts” and “Cold War thinking.”

Here is the text of the report itself. The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China’s military power draws Beijing’s ire every year.

France’s NATO Strategy

France’s move to rejoin NATO’s integrated military command structure reflects a shift in Paris’ strategic thinking about its allies and its ability to project unilateral power abroad.

In a strategic paper from the German think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), Dr. Ronja Kempin reviews the challenges facing France’s military revolution.

Read full story.

Russia-Iran Arms Deal

A Russian official said Moscow two years ago finalized a contract that would allow it to send S-300 air defense missiles to Iran, though they noted that no missiles had been sent to the country as yet.

The Associated Press (AP) reports Russia delivering S-300s to Iran would “markedly change the military balance in the Middle East.”

Europe, Iran and the Bomb

The Transatlantic Institute proudly announces the publication of a new book:

“Under a Mushroom Cloud: Europe, Iran and the Bomb”
by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Published by Profile Books, London (2009)

Since Iran’s illicit nuclear programme was exposed to a stunned world in 2002, Tehran has defied the international community and continued to pursue its nuclear goals. What drives this seemingly apocalyptic quest? Are Iran’s aims rational or not? Under a Mushroom Cloud analyses this catastrophic and murky situation, and examines Iran’s dual-track approach of accelerating its nuclear activities while weaving itself ever more tightly into the fabric of the European economy. Thriving trade between Europe and Iran, and heavy European involvement in Iran’s energy industry, have weakened Europe’s will to impose robust sanctions – but imposing them is the only practical way of protecting Europe’s strategic interests and ensuring the stability of the region.

Under a Mushroom Cloud offers a clear and compelling answer to this dilemma. Drawing on extensive research, including interviews with senior officials and security and intelligence personnel from many countries involved in the effort to stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb, it provides a comprehensive account of a serious strategic threat to Europe, and offers an original list of practical recommendations for European policymakers who must confront it.

Click here to buy the book.

Advance Praise:

‘Under a Mushroom Cloud considers Europe as the prime mover vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear ambitions. How Europe will use this unaccustomed power is the big question at the heart of this timely book.’ François Heisbourg, Special Adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

‘This is an important contribution to the debate about Europe’s approach to Iran. As one would expect, Dr Ottolenghi has written a well-informed, perceptive and sobering book. I hope our European leaders, and those who study this potential flashpoint, will read what he has to say.’ General The Lord Charles Guthrie, Chief of the British Defence Staff (1997-2001), Colonel Commandant of the Life Guards and the Special Air Service

‘How to deal with Iran is one of the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day. Dr Ottolenghi provides a useful guide to the challenge and thoughtful suggestions on how to meet it.’ Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies and Vice-Principal, King’s College London

‘For almost three decades, conventional wisdom has presented Iran as a problem for the United States. In this seminal study, Dr Ottolenghi shows that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could be more of a threat to Europe, which, in one of those bitter ironies of history, has helped the Khomeinist regime not only to survive but also to build its arsenal of deadly weapons. A work of impeccable scholarship, this book is also a political wake-up call to European democracies.’ Amir Taheri, syndicated columnist, former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest daily paper 

U.S.-North Korea Missile Tests

Lieutenant General Patrick O’Reilly, currently director of the Missile Defense Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, says the United States has successfully passed scenarios testing its ability to use its missile defense systems to intercept missiles fired from North Korea.

The Korea Times reports North Korea, meanwhile, has pressed ahead saying it will soon fire a “satellite” into orbit.

Read full story.

Fighting intensifies in Somalia

Al-Jazeera reports at least forty-eight people have been killed in Somalia since fighting broke out yesterday between militant fighters and African Union troops in the country’s capital, Mogadishu.

Meanwhile, the BBC reports the Somali Islamist group al-Shabaab, linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist group, overpowered government forces and seized control of the city of Hudur, near the Ethiopian border, early today.

Read full story.

Pakistan’s Battlefield

The New York Times reports that a U.S. unit of more than seventy military advisers and technical specialists are secretly working in Pakistan to aid the country’s military in its campaign against militant groups in the country’s tribal areas.

Meanwhile, the Afghan news outlet Quqnoos reports Pakistan’s government has been arming villagers in the country’s northwest in the hopes that they will fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the region.

Read full story.

Pakistan Planned Mumbai Terrorist Attack

A Pakistani official admitted for the first time that the deadly attacks in Mumbai, India, late last year were planned partly in Pakistan.

In a news conference today, Interior Ministry Chief Rehman Malik said legal proceedings have begun for eight suspects connected to militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET). Tensions have been high between India and Pakistan following the attacks in Mumbai, which killed 173 people.

Read full story.

The Lebanese Armed Forces – Challenges and Opportunities in Post-Syria Lebanon

A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies looks at the development of the Lebanese Armed Forces since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005.

“Executive Summary: The withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon on April 26, 2005, redefined the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The overlapping domestic and regional contests over post-Syria Lebanon, aggravated by the assassination of political and security figures, the Israel-Hizbullah war of 2006, terrorism and the remilitarization of society, placed heavy pressures on the LAF.

Indeed, the struggle over post-Syria Lebanon has also been a contest over the future mission and ideological direction of the LAF. The LAF has shown that it is one of the few Lebanese institutions in the post-Syria era trusted by a substantial cross-section of Lebanese society.

However, its force development over the 2005-2008 period does not reflect its increasingly important institutional role in Lebanese and regional security. The analysis reveals that the LAF has become more representative, more balanced and more capable as a fighting force. Furthermore, it is unlikely that Lebanon could have weathered the turbulence of the post-Syria era without the LAF.

Local and international actors also appreciate the military’s role as a stabilizer in Lebanon and the Middle East. If the Lebanese military is to consolidate its position as the guarantor of Lebanon and as a positive force in the region, the present unique opportunity to develop the LAF as a fighting force has to be pursued in earnest.

Lebanon’s competing parties, the LAF and the country’s international allies – especially the United States – will face important challenges in 2009 and beyond on the road to LAF force development. Recommendations to bolster LAF force development in 2009 and beyond include:

The purpose of this report is to examine the force development challenges that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are facing in post-Syria Lebanon. It also seeks to build on opportunities for Lebanon and its foreign allies to strengthen the LAF both as a local institution, and as a stabilizing fighting force in the Middle East.

• Efforts to control or re-orient the Lebanese military by competing Lebanese actors only serve to undermine the LAF’s effectiveness as a fighting force and a national institution. Such attempts must stop if LAF unity and its stabilizing role in the country and the region are to be preserved.
• The Lebanese government must move quickly to provide the military with the close to $1 billion it requires for essential force development. This can be accomplished by setting national expenditure on defense at 4 to 5 percent of GDP over a three year period to implement an updated force development plan modeled on the fiscally conservative 2006 plan.
• Any attempt to strengthen the LAF so that it can fight Hizbullah will fail. Close to 30 percent of the officers corps is Shi„a and given that the LAF is a reflection of Lebanese society, it cannot be ordered to act militarily against one or another
• The U.S. needs to recognize that building up the LAF as a deterrent against Lebanon’s neighbors undermines Hizbullah’s logic regarding its weapons arsenal. Accordingly, the U.S. should focus on helping the LAF to lay the foundation for Hizbullah disarmament in the mid-to-long term rather than all-out confrontation in the short term.
• U.S. policy towards the LAF is unclear and hurts U.S. efforts to bolster the LAF as a positive force in Lebanon and the region. These policy ambiguities should be revised and the U.S. must articulate clearly whether or not it will provide the LAF with the heavy combat systems it needs for force development.
• Recent spikes in U.S. military assistance funding have not yet translated into additional defense aid to Lebanon. Congressionally appropriated funding should be set at a level that reflects U.S. recognition of LAF needs.
• The U.S. should consider mechanisms that would reform Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to accelerate equipment deliveries to Lebanon. Alternatively, it could allow congressionally appropriated and supplemental funding earmarked for the LAF to be used in the acquisition of military equipment from U.S. allies. Such moves would positively impact the turnaround time for the receipt of new systems by the LAF while also relieving the burden on the U.S. effort to arm and equip the Afghan and Iraqi security forces.”

Read full story.

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America’s most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists.

Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policy makers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters’ strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important published and unpublished essays – until now.

Edited by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski, Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter demonstrates not only the historical importance, but also the continuing relevance of the Wohlstetters’ work in national security strategy and nuclear policy.

Read full story.

20th Annual U.S. Army War College Strategy Conference

The U.S. Army War College welcomes you to attend the Twentieth Annual Strategy Conference from April 14-16, 2009, in Carlisle, Pennsylvania at historic Carlisle Barracks.

While over the last decade a great deal of attention has been given to how information technologies are changing the strategic environment and shaping warfare, little has been mentioned about other revolutionary technologies, such as biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, in terms of their potential strategic impact. This conference will address that gap.

To register, please click here.

U.S. warns North Korea about possible missile test

A spokesman from the U.S. State Department spoke out on reports that North Korea may be preparing to test fire a long-range ballistic missile, saying such a move by Pyongyang would be “unhelpful and, frankly, provocative”. Intelligence and military officials believe it could be a long-range weapon capable of reaching the western United States.

Read full story.

U.N. Accusations of “Israeli Attack on School” Were False

At last month’s emergency session of the U.N. Human Rights Council, ambassadors from the world’s dictatorships – and even some democracies – lined up to attack Israel for “targeting a U.N. school.” Canada alone voted in opposition to the grossly one-sided text. 

Now a new report by Patrick Martin of Canada’s Globe and Mail reveals that, contrary to what was reported worldwide:

1. No Israeli shells landed in the UNRWA school compound;
2. No one taking refuge in the U.N. schoolyard was killed;
3. None of these facts prevented a U.N. agency from falsely reporting that “Israeli shelling directly hit two UNRWA schools …”

Will the Human Rights Council now apologize for having falsely condemned Israel for the targeting of facilities of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East in Gaza, including schools?

As usual when it comes to Israel, the Council was little concerned with actual facts. Egyptian representative Hisham Badr, speaking on behalf of the Arab Group, said that Israel did not distinguish between combatants and civilians, targeting United Nations schools. According to Yemen, “The attacks against schools. . . were grave crimes against humanity. Sudan spoke of the the mad attacks by Israel in Gaza, including against United Nations schools. Syria said UN schools have turned into mass graves. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Djibouti joined the fray – as did even several Western countries. Argentina demanded an independent international investigation on the attacks on UNRWA schools. Slovenia condemned Israeli attacks on schools. Switzerland said that at least 46 civilians seeking shelter in UNRWA school were killed.

Will any of these countries issue an apology, or seek to correct the resolution’s false assertions and faulty premises? Don’t bet on it.

For the full story, see the article below.

***

Account of Israeli attack doesn’t hold up to scrutiny

PATRICK MARTIN
The Globe and Mail, January 29, 2009

Jabalya, Gaza Strip – Most people remember the headlines: “Massacre Of Innocents As UN School Is Shelled; Israeli Strike Kills Dozens At UN School.”

They heralded the tragic news of January 6, 2009, when mortar shells fired by advancing Israeli forces killed 43 civilians in the Jabalya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip. The victims, it was reported, had taken refuge inside the Ibn Rushd Preparatory School for Boys, a facility run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.

The news shocked the world and was compared to the 1996 Israeli attack on a UN compound in Qana, Lebanon, in which more than 100 people seeking refuge were killed. It was certain to hasten the end of Israel’s attack on Gaza, and would undoubtedly lead the list of allegations of war crimes committed by Israel.

There was just one problem: The story, as etched in people’s minds, was not quite accurate.

Physical evidence and interviews with several eyewitnesses, including a teacher who was in the schoolyard at the time of the shelling, make it clear: While a few people were injured from shrapnel landing inside the white-and-blue-walled UNRWA compound, no one in the compound was killed. The 43 people who died in the incident were all outside, on the street, where all three mortar shells landed.

Stories of one or more shells landing inside the schoolyard were inaccurate.

While the killing of 43 civilians on the street may itself be grounds for investigation, it falls short of the act of shooting into a schoolyard crowded with refuge-seekers.

The teacher who was in the compound at the time of the shelling says he heard three loud blasts, one after the other, then a lot of screaming. “I ran in the direction of the screaming [inside the compound],” he said. “I could see some of the people had been injured, cut. I picked up one girl who was bleeding by her eye, and ran out on the street to get help.”But when I got outside, it was crazy hell. There were bodies everywhere, people dead, injured, flesh everywhere.”

The teacher, who refused to give his name because he said UNRWA had told the staff not to talk to the news media, was adamant: “Inside [the compound] there were 12 injured, but there were no dead.”

“Three of my students were killed,” he said. “But they were all outside.”

Hazem Balousha, who runs an auto-body shop across the road from the UNRWA school, was down the street, just out of range of the shrapnel, when the three shells hit. He showed a reporter where they landed: one to the right of his shop, one to the left, and one right in front.

“There were only three,” he said. “They were all out here on the road.”

News of the tragedy travelled fast, with aid workers and medical staff quoted as saying the incident happened at the school, the UNRWA facility where people had sought refuge.

Soon it was presented that people in the school compound had been killed. Before long, there was worldwide outrage.

Sensing a public-relations nightmare, Israeli spokespeople quickly asserted that their forces had only returned fire from gunmen inside the school. (They even named two militants.) It was a statement from which they would later retreat, saying there were gunmen in the vicinity of the school.

No witnesses said they saw any gunmen. (If people had seen anyone firing a mortar from the middle of the street outside the school, they likely would not have continued to mill around.)

John Ging, UNRWA’s operations director in Gaza, acknowledged in an interview this week that all three Israeli mortar shells landed outside the school and that “no one was killed in the school.”

“I told the Israelis that none of the shells landed in the school,” he said.

Why would he do that?

“Because they had told everyone they had returned fire from gunmen in the school. That wasn’t true.”

Mr. Ging blames the Israelis for the confusion over where the victims were killed. “They even came out with a video that purported to show gunmen in the schoolyard. But we had seen it before,” he said, “in 2007.”

The Israelis are the ones, he said, who got everyone thinking the deaths occurred inside the school.

“Look at my statements,” he said. “I never said anyone was killed in the school. Our officials never made any such allegation.”

Speaking from Shifa Hospital in Gaza City as the bodies were being brought in that night, an emotional Mr. Ging did say: “Those in the school were all families seeking refuge. … There’s nowhere safe in Gaza.”

And in its daily bulletin, the World Health Organization reported: “On 6 January, 42 people were killed following an attack on a UNRWA school …”

The UN’s Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs got the location right, for a short while. Its daily bulletin cited “early reports” that “three artillery shells landed outside the UNRWA Jabalia Prep. C Girls School …” However, its more comprehensive weekly report, published three days later, stated that “Israeli shelling directly hit two UNRWA schools …” including the one at issue.

Such official wording helps explain the widespread news reports of the deaths in the school, but not why the UN agencies allowed the misconception to linger.

“I know no one was killed in the school,” Mr. Ging said. “But 41 innocent people were killed in the street outside the school. Many of those people had taken refuge in the school and wandered out onto the street.

“The state of Israel still has to answer for that. What did they know and what care did they take?”

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