India gets nuclear submarine

India will launch its first nuclear submarine later this month, the Financial Times reports.

The submarine would add India to a short list of countries with the capability to launch a nuclear strike from the sea.

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Italy preparations for 35th G8 summit

The European Commission will push for commitments on climate change from the Group of Eight leaders at their summit in Italy beginning tomorrow.

EU President Jose Manuel Barroso said he wants to “create a sense of urgency” on the issue ahead of the climate summit at Copenhagen in December.

The Wall Street Journal looks at challenges facing Italy as it prepares to host the G8 summit. The country is still recovering from an April earthquake in L’Aquila, the town where the summit is to take place, and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is dealing with controversy surrounding his private life. 

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Mossad says Iran to have nuclear weapon by 2014

The head of the Mossad has said that Iran will be able to launch its first nuclear weapon by 2014.

Meir Dagan, the Israeli intelligence agency chief, told a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “If the project has no technical glitches, and if Iran’s program does not malfunction in any way, they will have a bomb to launch by 2014. This is a significant existential threat for the State of Israel. We must distance this threat.”

Meir Dagan also said that the current unrest in Iran over the disputed results of last week’s presidential election was “an internal matter” and that it would soon die down. He said the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would make it easier for Israel to explain to the world the significance of the threat of Iran gaining nuclear capability. He also pointed out to the committee that it was actually the more moderate candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had actually started Iran’s nuclear program when he was prime minister.

North Korea Alert

Yonhap News Agency reports the United States of America and South Korea have increased their alert level toward North Korea and have ramped up surveillance following Pyongyang’s decision to scrap the treaty halting the Korean War.

The BBC has a news analysis attempting to gauge North Korea’s game plan. 

In a strategic paper published by the U.S. War Army College, experts Colonel Ray Midkiff and Dr. James Downey address the policy options available to influence North Korea.

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USA and Russia open nuclear arms reduction talks

The United States and Russia begin three days of talks today aimed at hammering out a deal to replace the 1991 START treaty and structure further cuts to their respective nuclear arsenals.

A graphic in the Economist shows how many nuclear weapons different countries have.

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Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at risk

The New York Times reports today that Washington is increasingly concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal, including the potential of militants to steal a weapon or otherwise infiltrate nuclear laboratories or fuel-production facilities.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for Sufi Mohammad, the radical and increasingly influential Muslim cleric in Pakistan, said the Taliban would not lay down their arms in the Malakand region unless government military operations there are halted.

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Former US ambassador with financial links to Iran and Saudi Arabia declines intelligence post

Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Charles W. (”Chas”) Freeman, Jr. has withdrawn his candidature for a top intelligence post in the Obama administration, US intelligence director Dennis Blair has announced, accepting Freeman’s decision “with regret.”

Freeman’s decision came after US lawmakers raised concerns about his alleged financial links to China and Saudi Arabia, and critics attacked comments he had made in the past which they saw as overly critical of Israel. A Republican politician highlighted Freeman’s ties to a think tank heavily funded by Saudi Arabia as well as his time on the board of a state-run Chinese oil giant, during which the firm made major investments in Iran.

Dennis Blair had chosen Freeman, a former ambassador to Riyadh and senior diplomat in Beijing, to be chairman of the National Intelligence Council. The post would have made him, in effect, the chief author of the National Intelligence Estimates – assessments for US presidents and other decision-makers on highly sensitive matters. The documents are designed to reflect the consensus view of all 16 US spy agencies on potential threats like Iran.

Freeman himself explained his withdrawal in an email saying that pro-Israeli lobbyists in Washington led a campaign to block him from taking office. Foreign Policy has printed the text of the email here.

Europe, Iran and the Bomb

The Transatlantic Institute proudly announces the publication of a new book:

“Under a Mushroom Cloud: Europe, Iran and the Bomb”
by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Published by Profile Books, London (2009)

Since Iran’s illicit nuclear programme was exposed to a stunned world in 2002, Tehran has defied the international community and continued to pursue its nuclear goals. What drives this seemingly apocalyptic quest? Are Iran’s aims rational or not? Under a Mushroom Cloud analyses this catastrophic and murky situation, and examines Iran’s dual-track approach of accelerating its nuclear activities while weaving itself ever more tightly into the fabric of the European economy. Thriving trade between Europe and Iran, and heavy European involvement in Iran’s energy industry, have weakened Europe’s will to impose robust sanctions – but imposing them is the only practical way of protecting Europe’s strategic interests and ensuring the stability of the region.

Under a Mushroom Cloud offers a clear and compelling answer to this dilemma. Drawing on extensive research, including interviews with senior officials and security and intelligence personnel from many countries involved in the effort to stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb, it provides a comprehensive account of a serious strategic threat to Europe, and offers an original list of practical recommendations for European policymakers who must confront it.

Click here to buy the book.

Advance Praise:

‘Under a Mushroom Cloud considers Europe as the prime mover vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear ambitions. How Europe will use this unaccustomed power is the big question at the heart of this timely book.’ François Heisbourg, Special Adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

‘This is an important contribution to the debate about Europe’s approach to Iran. As one would expect, Dr Ottolenghi has written a well-informed, perceptive and sobering book. I hope our European leaders, and those who study this potential flashpoint, will read what he has to say.’ General The Lord Charles Guthrie, Chief of the British Defence Staff (1997-2001), Colonel Commandant of the Life Guards and the Special Air Service

‘How to deal with Iran is one of the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day. Dr Ottolenghi provides a useful guide to the challenge and thoughtful suggestions on how to meet it.’ Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies and Vice-Principal, King’s College London

‘For almost three decades, conventional wisdom has presented Iran as a problem for the United States. In this seminal study, Dr Ottolenghi shows that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could be more of a threat to Europe, which, in one of those bitter ironies of history, has helped the Khomeinist regime not only to survive but also to build its arsenal of deadly weapons. A work of impeccable scholarship, this book is also a political wake-up call to European democracies.’ Amir Taheri, syndicated columnist, former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest daily paper 

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America’s most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists.

Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policy makers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters’ strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important published and unpublished essays – until now.

Edited by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski, Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter demonstrates not only the historical importance, but also the continuing relevance of the Wohlstetters’ work in national security strategy and nuclear policy.

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Russia-Ukraine Deal

Russia and Ukraine signed a deal this weekend that will get Russian gas flowing to Europe again and seems likely to end a weeks-long standoff over Russian gas exports.

The BBC explains the spat in a Q&A.

Beyond Dependence:How to deal with Russian gas

In a report published today by the Berlin-based think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Pierre Noel argues that the most effective strategy for the European Union to counter Russia’s divisive energy diplomacy would be building a single European market in natural gas.

The analysis is published a few days prior to the next EU-Russia summit. It also comes two months before the start of the Czech EU presidency which has designated energy security as one of its top priorities.

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India-France nuclear talks

After the U.S. House of Representatives voted this weekend to pass the U.S.-India nuclear deal (it still must pass the U.S. Senate), Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets today with French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss boosting civilian nuclear energy trade, the BBC reports.

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Scientists Test New Atom Smasher

Europe’s new Center for Nuclear Research made history today when it successfully tested the world’s largest particle accelerator. International debate over the safety of the device – which a minority of scientists argue could destroy the world – has intensified in recent weeks.

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The new cold war between Russia and the U.S.

Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev moved to recognize the breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent nations. Medvedev addressed also the U.S. missile shield, saying Russia would have to respond militarily if the United States continues to deploy elements of the shield to Eastern European countries.

Meanwhile, Russia accused NATO of building up naval forces in the Black Sea, though the United States cancelled plans to send a ship to the region.

An analysis from Stratfor says the Black Sea is critical to Russian defense – it says NATO does not have the ability to project power through land forces against Russia but has naval capacity to potentially limit Russian operations in the area.

The Swiss-Iranian-Lybian Nuclear Connection

The New York Times reports on the Swiss government’s decision to destroy a huge cache of files documenting the links between a family of Swiss engineers and nuclear scientists in Libya and Iran.

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The roots of the Russian-Georgian war

The Economist takes an in-depth look at the origins and long-terms effects of the war, saying the conflict is more than simply punishing Georgia for its aspirations to join NATO, or even trying to displace Mikheil Saakashvili but “it is about Russia, resurgent and nationalistic, pushing its way back into the Caucasus.”

It says the Russian people will likely pay the biggest price for the attack on Georgia, as the war could keep Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in power for years to come and lead to further stifling of civil freedoms.

In USA Today, Leon Aron describes the psychological and practical elements of Russian foreign policy under Putin and his successor – invocations of a great Soviet past, a focus on imagined external enemies, and a fervor to reassert territorial sovereignty – that are fueling the current conflict.

“Thus, ‘Prime Minister’ Putin confirmed to Russia and the world what many have suspected: The elections in Russia are a sham, and so is the constitutional division of power. Buried under the rubble in the Georgian city of Gori are also the vague hopes of Medvedev’s trimming at least the excesses of Putinism with domestic ‘liberalization’ and a more accommodating foreign policy that his speeches had seemed to imply. All his words about the ‘rule of law’ and ‘freedom of speech’ and ‘anti-corruption’ appear today to have as little credibility as the man who said them. To the extent that there were the ‘liberals’ and the ‘hard-liners’ among the Russian leadership, the distinction seemed to matter little when a decision was made to choose war. Most disconcerting, the Georgia incursion is a colossal setback for the already weak forces of democracy inside Russia.”

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India Nuclear Plans

 

The BBC previews meetings at which Indian nuclear officials will brief the United Nations on steps the country is taking to safeguard its nuclear facilities.

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Israel finances irrigation project in Senegal

A major new irrigation project developed by the Israeli embassy in Senegal is proving a boon for Senegalese farmers, The Christian Science Monitor reports.

“Mamadou Diouf says he hopes to expand drip irrigation in his village. ‘If this project works,’ he says, ‘we’ll have money to buy rice and vegetables. That’s why it’s so important.”

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Russia punishes Czech Republic for hosting U.S. Missile Defense Shield

The Moscow Times reports Czech leaders have questioned Moscow’s assertion that oil exports to the Czech Republic have dipped due to technical reasons. They accuse Russia of using oil punitively following a decision by the Czech Republic to back plans for a U.S. missile defense shield.

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Global Action to Save Global Growth

In an opinion piece in The Washington Post, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon writes on the eve of the coming G8 summit that this is the moment to prove that we can cooperate globally to deliver results: in meeting the needs of the hungry and the poor, in promoting sustainable energy technologies for all, in saving the world from climate change – and in keeping the global economy growing.

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United States presidential election, 2008: Chances of an Iran invasion before President George W. Bush leaves office?

U.S. Navy Admiral Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, urged caution before undertaking any military action in Iran, saying a strike on the country would prove “extremely stressful” for U.S. forces, The Los Angeles Times reports.

Furthermore, in a new panel discussion, PostGlobal (an online forum of The Washington Post and Newsweek International) debates how likely it is that the United States or Israel will launch an attack against Iran before President George W. Bush leaves office.

Perhaps John McCain’s last chance to knock Barack Obama out in November 2008… Meanwhile,  several of Senator Hillary Clinton’s former foreign policy advisers, among them Lee Feinstein (former Hillary Clinton Campaign National Security Director), Robert J. Einhorn, and Stuart Eizenstat, have begun consulting Obama.

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The Tragic End of Bush’s North Korea Policy

In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, former US Ambassador to the UN, John R. Bolton, criticizes North Korea policy in the Bush administration’s final months.

“Maskirovka – the Soviet dark art of denial, deception and disguise – is alive and well in Pyongyang, years after the Soviet Union disappeared. Unfortunately, the Bush administration appears not to have gotten the word.

With much fanfare and choreography, but little substance, the administration has accepted a North Korean ‘declaration’ about its nuclear program that is narrowly limited, incomplete and almost certainly dishonest in material respects. In exchange, President Bush personally declared that North Korea is no longer a state sponsor of terrorism or an enemy of the United States. In a final flourish, North Korea has undertaken a reverse Potemkin Village act, destroying the antiquated cooling tower of the antiquated Yongbyon reactor. In the waning days of American presidencies, this theater is the stuff of legacy.”

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The Iranian Shell Game

by Emanuele Ottolenghi, director of the Transatlantic Institute
Published in Commentary Magazine, July-August 2008

Ever since a defector exposed the existence of Iran’s nuclear program in 2002, the regime in Tehran has routinely protested its innocence in the face of charges that it is developing fissile weapons of mass destruction and the missiles on which to carry them. Its nuclear program, Tehran claims, has only civilian purposes, and it is allowed to pursue such a program under the terms of the binding international treaties to which it is a signatory.

If Iran is telling the truth and desires solely nuclear energy - which would be peculiar, to say the least, considering that under its sands rest the world’s second largest natural-gas reserves and the world’s fifth largest crude-oil reserves- its behavior these past six years makes no sense. The regime would seem to have had everything to gain from making it crystal-clear to the world that it has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons. Instead, it has rejected repeated and alluring incentives designed to seduce it into demonstrating the non-existence of the efforts it continues to insist it is not undertaking. In the process, it has had to suffer painful economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the United States. Its six years of defiance and stonewalling have led to increasing diplomatic isolation.

As a matter of simple logic, then, it is only rational to conclude that Iran is working, and working very hard, to become a nuclear power. But there may be logic of a different and no less compelling kind behind its actions. For, at the end of these same six years, many in the West remain fiercely committed to the idea that discussing the dangers of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power-let alone discussing how to stop it-represents a greater threat to the world than does the Iranian pursuit itself.

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India-Pakistan-Iran Pipeline

India’s petroleum minister announced the country will soon finalize a deal establishing a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline project connecting India, Pakistan, and Iran.

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U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

Rediff reports Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is upping the pressure on parliament to pass a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States, and that Singh may even resign over the issue.

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Weapons of Mass Destruction made in Pakistan

The New York Times reports on new revelations about the nuclear proliferation network of the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. The paper reports investigators found blueprints for a compact, easily concealed nuclear device, which raises questions about who might have bought the weapons designs.

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Saudi Arabia Oil Plan

The Financial Times reports on moderate market reaction to Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it will raise oil production to its highest level ever in an effort to address rising global crude prices. The Saudi plan calls for the completion of a project that would increase production capacity by 500,000 barrels per day, though analysts note hints from the Saudi government that they don’t intend to bring that full amount to the market.

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