4èmes Rencontres de Rueil-Malmaison: Territoire, Évaluation & Dévelopement Durable

Vendredi 20 novembre 2009, Rueil-Malmaison

Avec le soutien et la participation du CGDD (Commissariat général au développement durable),  de l’AMF (Association des Maires de France), de l’ADF (Assemblée des Départements de France) et de la SFE (Société Française de l’Évaluation)

Problématique

La conjonction de ces 4èmes Rencontres de Rueil-Malmaison avec la tenue de la Conférence de Copenhague sur le climat, induit à concentrer les travaux sur les engagements auxquels les différents pays s’apprêtent à souscrire. On sait que ces engagements devront être conséquents. Souscrits par les gouvernements, ils impliqueront les acteurs des territoires: entreprises, collectivités et simples citoyens.

Parmi les questions qui se posent, il y a celle de savoir si ces engagements seront bien à la hauteur des défis à relever. Il y a aussi celle de savoir si les territoires seront en mesure d’assumer la charge correspondante.

Comment apprécier «a priori» l’efficience des programmes territoriaux de réduction des gaz à effet de serre (GES)? 

La question est d’autant plus importante que les aides publiques devront aller aux programmes les plus pertinents et ne pas se diluer, alors même que, du fait de la crise économique, tous les territoires sont à la recherche d’investissements susceptibles tout à la fois d’aider l’économie à repartir, de limiter les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de préparer l’avenir.

Sur le plan méthodologique, cette situation rejoint celle des évaluations «ex ante» auxquelles les porteurs de programmes soutenus par des fonds européens commencent à être habitués, puisqu’il s’agit dans ce cadre de faire la démonstration de la pertinence des actions programmées avant même qu’elles ne soient engagées, ce qui nous éloigne beaucoup de la culture française de l’évaluation ex post. En l’occurrence (Copenhague), la difficulté sera cependant plus grande encore, puisqu’il s’agira de pratiquer des «évaluations prospectives» portant sur des programmes ayant une portée de 10 ou 20 ans.

Mais comment évaluer ex ante les impacts attendus à long terme?

En outre, la pertinence de ces programmes de limitation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), relèvera non seulement de critères techniques mais également de paramètres relatifs à la qualité des actions d’information, de communication, de concertation, de formation et de mobilisation des acteurs des territoires, en un mot de paramètres de «participation».

Les dispositions techniques et réglementaires sont, sans doute, des dimensions importantes du sujet, mais les comportements et la participation en sont d’autres, au moins aussi importantes et qui répondent à des ressorts complexes mal repérés.

On voit se dégager des questions d’ordre méthodologique:

• Comment évaluer une politique multidimensionnelle ciblée sur un critère dominant (la limitation des émissions de GES), mais faisant place aux critères d’efficacité économique et sociale?
• Peut-on concevoir des indicateurs synthétiques intégrant les paramètres propres au territoire et à ses acteurs? 

Enfin, on sait que parmi les activités humaines contribuant le plus fortement au réchauffement climatique, le chauffage des bâtiments et les transports se trouvent en bonne position. Les villes sont donc des acteurs de premier rang. Comment les aires urbaines vont-elles pouvoir assumer leur part de l’effort? Comment imaginer des politiques et conduire des programmes efficaces de limitation des gaz à effet de serre associant les collectivités, les entreprises et les citoyens? 

La Ville de Rueil-Malmaison, qui est engagée avec celle de Suresnes dans la construction d’une importante et emblématique Communauté d’agglomération, veut lancer la réflexion et la faire partager à ses habitants afin  d’ouvrir le chantier sans tarder.

Ces Rencontres de Rueil-Malmaison, tout en s’adressant à un public de responsables et d’experts, sont également conçues pour intéresser les citoyens engagés dans la vie locale, par exemple à travers des comités de quartier, qui souhaitent s’impliquer dans les actions mises en œuvre par la collectivité pour lutter contre l’effet de serre.

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Organisation et modalités pratiques

Lieu: Médiathèque Jacques Baumel

15, boulevard du Maréchal Foch (Mairie) – 92 500 Rueil-Malmaison

Horaires Accueil: à partir de 8h15 à l’auditorium de la Médiathèque

Remise des documents – accueil administratif

Allocutions de lancement à 9h00 dans l’amphithéâtre

Clôture à 16h30

Déjeuner: Buffet bio éthique servi dans la salle des mariages de la Mairie

Participation: 50 euros

Renseignements et inscriptions

Le service du Développement Durable de la Mairie de Rueil-Malmaison est à votre disposition pour tout renseignement:

Par téléphone au 01 41 39 08 96

Par télécopie au 01 47 10 01 29

Par e-mail developpementdurable@mairie-rueilmalmaison.fr

USA, UK and France Tell Iran to Open Nuke Site

The New York Times reports that U.S. President Obama and the leaders of UK and France will accuse Iran of building a secret underground plant to manufacture nuclear fuel, saying the country has hidden the covert operation from international weapons inspectors for years, according to senior administration officials. 

The revelation, which the three leaders will make before the opening of the Group of 20 economic summit in Pittsburgh, appears bound to add urgency to the diplomatic confrontation with Iran over its suspected ambitions to build a nuclear weapons capacity. Mr. Obama, along with Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, will demand that Iran allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an immediate inspection of the facility, which is said to be 100 miles southwest of Tehran. 

U.S. officials said that they had been tracking the covert project for years, but that Mr. Obama decided to make public the American findings after Iran discovered, in recent weeks, that Western intelligence agencies had breached the secrecy surrounding the project.

On Monday, Iran wrote a brief, cryptic letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, saying that it now had a ‘pilot plant’ under construction, whose existence it had never before revealed. In a statement from its headquarters in Vienna yesterday, the atomic agency confirmed that it had been told by Iran that a new pilot fuel enrichment plant is under construction in the country.

Read full story.

India gets nuclear submarine

India will launch its first nuclear submarine later this month, the Financial Times reports.

The submarine would add India to a short list of countries with the capability to launch a nuclear strike from the sea.

Read full story.

Mossad says Iran to have nuclear weapon by 2014

The head of the Mossad has said that Iran will be able to launch its first nuclear weapon by 2014.

Meir Dagan, the Israeli intelligence agency chief, told a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “If the project has no technical glitches, and if Iran’s program does not malfunction in any way, they will have a bomb to launch by 2014. This is a significant existential threat for the State of Israel. We must distance this threat.”

Meir Dagan also said that the current unrest in Iran over the disputed results of last week’s presidential election was “an internal matter” and that it would soon die down. He said the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would make it easier for Israel to explain to the world the significance of the threat of Iran gaining nuclear capability. He also pointed out to the committee that it was actually the more moderate candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had actually started Iran’s nuclear program when he was prime minister.

North Korea Alert

Yonhap News Agency reports the United States of America and South Korea have increased their alert level toward North Korea and have ramped up surveillance following Pyongyang’s decision to scrap the treaty halting the Korean War.

The BBC has a news analysis attempting to gauge North Korea’s game plan. 

In a strategic paper published by the U.S. War Army College, experts Colonel Ray Midkiff and Dr. James Downey address the policy options available to influence North Korea.

Read full story.

Israeli report: “Venezuela and Bolivia supply uranium to Iran”

Venezuela and Bolivia are supplying Iran with uranium for its nuclear program, according to a secret Israeli government report obtained by the news agency Associated Press (AP).

“There are reports that Venezuela supplies Iran with uranium for its nuclear program,” the document states, referring to previous Israeli intelligence conclusions. It adds: “Bolivia also supplies uranium to Iran.” The report concludes that Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is trying to undermine the United States by supporting Iran. Israel also suspects Iran of supporting the establishment of Hezbollah cells in northern Venezuela and the country’s Margarita Island.

President Chávez expelled the Israeli ambassador during Israel’s offensive in Gaza this year, and Israel retaliated by expelling the Venezuelan envoy. Bolivia also cut ties with Israel over the Gaza war.

The three-page document about Iranian activities in Latin America was prepared in advance of a visit to South America by deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon, who will attend a conference of the Organization of American States in Honduras next week. Foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman is also scheduled to visit the region.

Fears About Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

As militancy grows in Pakistan, U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

The Washington Times reports that the military controls the country’s nuclear stockpile, so any scenario that changes the balance of power in the military – from a coup to a Taliban takeover – could endanger the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Read full story.

Europe, Iran and the Bomb

The Transatlantic Institute proudly announces the publication of a new book:

“Under a Mushroom Cloud: Europe, Iran and the Bomb”
by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Published by Profile Books, London (2009)

Since Iran’s illicit nuclear programme was exposed to a stunned world in 2002, Tehran has defied the international community and continued to pursue its nuclear goals. What drives this seemingly apocalyptic quest? Are Iran’s aims rational or not? Under a Mushroom Cloud analyses this catastrophic and murky situation, and examines Iran’s dual-track approach of accelerating its nuclear activities while weaving itself ever more tightly into the fabric of the European economy. Thriving trade between Europe and Iran, and heavy European involvement in Iran’s energy industry, have weakened Europe’s will to impose robust sanctions – but imposing them is the only practical way of protecting Europe’s strategic interests and ensuring the stability of the region.

Under a Mushroom Cloud offers a clear and compelling answer to this dilemma. Drawing on extensive research, including interviews with senior officials and security and intelligence personnel from many countries involved in the effort to stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb, it provides a comprehensive account of a serious strategic threat to Europe, and offers an original list of practical recommendations for European policymakers who must confront it.

Click here to buy the book.

Advance Praise:

‘Under a Mushroom Cloud considers Europe as the prime mover vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear ambitions. How Europe will use this unaccustomed power is the big question at the heart of this timely book.’ François Heisbourg, Special Adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

‘This is an important contribution to the debate about Europe’s approach to Iran. As one would expect, Dr Ottolenghi has written a well-informed, perceptive and sobering book. I hope our European leaders, and those who study this potential flashpoint, will read what he has to say.’ General The Lord Charles Guthrie, Chief of the British Defence Staff (1997-2001), Colonel Commandant of the Life Guards and the Special Air Service

‘How to deal with Iran is one of the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day. Dr Ottolenghi provides a useful guide to the challenge and thoughtful suggestions on how to meet it.’ Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies and Vice-Principal, King’s College London

‘For almost three decades, conventional wisdom has presented Iran as a problem for the United States. In this seminal study, Dr Ottolenghi shows that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could be more of a threat to Europe, which, in one of those bitter ironies of history, has helped the Khomeinist regime not only to survive but also to build its arsenal of deadly weapons. A work of impeccable scholarship, this book is also a political wake-up call to European democracies.’ Amir Taheri, syndicated columnist, former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest daily paper 

U.S.-North Korea Missile Tests

Lieutenant General Patrick O’Reilly, currently director of the Missile Defense Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, says the United States has successfully passed scenarios testing its ability to use its missile defense systems to intercept missiles fired from North Korea.

The Korea Times reports North Korea, meanwhile, has pressed ahead saying it will soon fire a “satellite” into orbit.

Read full story.

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America’s most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists.

Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policy makers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters’ strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important published and unpublished essays – until now.

Edited by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski, Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter demonstrates not only the historical importance, but also the continuing relevance of the Wohlstetters’ work in national security strategy and nuclear policy.

Read full story.

20th Annual U.S. Army War College Strategy Conference

The U.S. Army War College welcomes you to attend the Twentieth Annual Strategy Conference from April 14-16, 2009, in Carlisle, Pennsylvania at historic Carlisle Barracks.

While over the last decade a great deal of attention has been given to how information technologies are changing the strategic environment and shaping warfare, little has been mentioned about other revolutionary technologies, such as biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, in terms of their potential strategic impact. This conference will address that gap.

To register, please click here.

U.S. warns North Korea about possible missile test

A spokesman from the U.S. State Department spoke out on reports that North Korea may be preparing to test fire a long-range ballistic missile, saying such a move by Pyongyang would be “unhelpful and, frankly, provocative”. Intelligence and military officials believe it could be a long-range weapon capable of reaching the western United States.

Read full story.

Russia-Ukraine Deal

Russia and Ukraine signed a deal this weekend that will get Russian gas flowing to Europe again and seems likely to end a weeks-long standoff over Russian gas exports.

The BBC explains the spat in a Q&A.

An American Strategy for Asia

by Dan Blumenthal and Aaron Friedberg

ASIA STRATEGY WORKING GROUP – American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

On the global shift in wealth and power toward Asia

The new U.S. administration confronts an unusually long and daunting list of pressing foreign policy problems: ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the continuing threat of global terrorism, a brewing crisis in Pakistan, unresolved nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea, Russia’s new aggressiveness toward its neighbors, and the lingering aftereffects of a global financial meltdown. All will demand urgent attention and timely action. The president-elect will be lucky if he has a moment to savor his victory, let alone to pause and reflect on the longer-term trends that are reshaping the world.

Yet such reflection is badly needed. As important as they undoubtedly are, all of the issues listed above are being played out against the backdrop of something even bigger: a massive, rapid shift in the distribution of global wealth and power toward Asia. This process has been gathering momentum for more than thirty years; if current projections are borne out, in the next thirty Asia’s rise will fundamentally alter the structure of the international system and the character of great power politics.

It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of what is taking place. The changes now underway are comparable in scale, and potentially in historical significance, to the “rise of the West” – the emergence of Europe as the world’s leader in wealth and military power – or the rise of the United States to global preponderance that began in the nineteenth century.

Such a profound shift will eventually require the reexamination, and ultimately the reorientation, of many aspects of America’s foreign, economic, and defense policies. These changes may be forced by events. Or they could be shaped by a clear and coherent national strategy, a plan of action that looks beyond today’s turmoil, sets broad goals, and identifies the tools and policies that will be necessary to achieve them.

The purpose of this report is to put forward an American strategy for Asia. While it is motivated by an awareness of long-term trends, the emphasis of this report will be on the concrete and practical. We intend not only to identify goals, but also to specify the steps that a new president should take over the next four to eight years to bring them closer to realization.

Our report differs from others on related subjects in two important ways.

First, it is focused rather than comprehensive. Instead of touching lightly on every conceivable subject relevant to Asia, we have chosen to concentrate on those that we believe to be of greatest strategic importance.

Second, our report is more candid than is typically the case about the challenges that are likely to emanate from Asia and, in particular, about those that may result from the rise of China. Our intention is not to be provocative, but rather to be clear. Ritualized “happy talk” about where China is headed will do little, if anything, to alter Beijing’s course. But unwarranted optimism on the part of our leaders may make it harder to maintain public support for the policies necessary to keep the peace and secure American interests, and it could set the stage for future disappointment and overreaction if exaggerated expectations of Sino-American friendship are not met.

We have been reminded in recent years how important it is not to overstate the magnitude and imminence of threats to our nation’s security, but it is at least as important to be clear and honest in acknowledging their existence.

Read full report.

India-France nuclear talks

After the U.S. House of Representatives voted this weekend to pass the U.S.-India nuclear deal (it still must pass the U.S. Senate), Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets today with French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss boosting civilian nuclear energy trade, the BBC reports.

Read full story.

Asymmetrische Kriegsführung – Irans bedrohliche Marinedoktrin

Der andauernde Konflikt über das iranische Atomprogramm hat die Spannungen in der strategischen Region des Persischen Golfs erhöht. Auf der Grundlage seiner Erfahrungen während des iranisch-irakischen Krieges und jüngerer Konflikte im Irak, in Afghanistan und im Libanon hat die Islamische Republik eine umfassende Doktrin asymmetrischer Kriegsführung entwickelt. Gemeinsam mit der verstärkten Rolle der Revolutionswächter im Persischen Golf stellt sie eine zunehmende Bedrohung für die US-Marine und die Verbündeten der USA in der Golfregion dar.

Der iranische Militärexperte Fariborz Haghshenass, Mitglied der US-amerikanischen Denkfabrik Washington Institute for Near East Policy, hat eine umfassende Analyse der iranischen Marinedoktrin veröffentlicht.

Zum Artikel.

Scientists Test New Atom Smasher

Europe’s new Center for Nuclear Research made history today when it successfully tested the world’s largest particle accelerator. International debate over the safety of the device – which a minority of scientists argue could destroy the world – has intensified in recent weeks.

Read full story.

The Swiss-Iranian-Lybian Nuclear Connection

The New York Times reports on the Swiss government’s decision to destroy a huge cache of files documenting the links between a family of Swiss engineers and nuclear scientists in Libya and Iran.

Read full story.

The World of Tomorrow

In The Wall Street Journal, columnist Michael Barone reviews a new bestseller written by John Zogby: The Way We’ll Be.

“John Zogby is the maverick in the political polling fraternity, the guy who admits that he sometimes tweaks the rules and whose numbers are sometimes greeted with skepticism. He is also an original thinker and a perceptive observer of the American scene, especially as it is viewed from the far-outside-the- Beltway precincts of Utica, N.Y., where his Lebanese- immigrant grandfather ran a grocery store for years.

It is the social observer who comes to the fore in Mr. Zogby’s The Way We’ll Be, an attempt to describe, by way of polls, the American state of mind and to imagine what it portends. Along the way, Mr. Zogby sounds several themes. One is that Americans increasingly want variety in their consumer products and entertainment offerings. ‘They want choice, not imposition, and they are demanding to be treated as individuals,’ he writes. ‘Today’s beer drinker and movie watcher and rock music fan can personalize his or her refrigerator or DVD or iPod playlist as never before.”

Read full story.

Bombing Iran or Living with Iran’s Bomb?

The Transatlantic Institute issued a report commissioned from defence and Middle East affairs analyst, Kassem Ja’afar. The report looks into the two scenarios described by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in a speech last August 2007: bombing Iran or living with Iran’s bomb.

To read the report, please click here.

India Nuclear Plans

 

The BBC previews meetings at which Indian nuclear officials will brief the United Nations on steps the country is taking to safeguard its nuclear facilities.

Read full story.

Israel finances irrigation project in Senegal

A major new irrigation project developed by the Israeli embassy in Senegal is proving a boon for Senegalese farmers, The Christian Science Monitor reports.

“Mamadou Diouf says he hopes to expand drip irrigation in his village. ‘If this project works,’ he says, ‘we’ll have money to buy rice and vegetables. That’s why it’s so important.”

Read full story.

The Tragic End of Bush’s North Korea Policy

In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, former US Ambassador to the UN, John R. Bolton, criticizes North Korea policy in the Bush administration’s final months.

“Maskirovka – the Soviet dark art of denial, deception and disguise – is alive and well in Pyongyang, years after the Soviet Union disappeared. Unfortunately, the Bush administration appears not to have gotten the word.

With much fanfare and choreography, but little substance, the administration has accepted a North Korean ‘declaration’ about its nuclear program that is narrowly limited, incomplete and almost certainly dishonest in material respects. In exchange, President Bush personally declared that North Korea is no longer a state sponsor of terrorism or an enemy of the United States. In a final flourish, North Korea has undertaken a reverse Potemkin Village act, destroying the antiquated cooling tower of the antiquated Yongbyon reactor. In the waning days of American presidencies, this theater is the stuff of legacy.”

Read full story.

The Iranian Shell Game

by Emanuele Ottolenghi, director of the Transatlantic Institute
Published in Commentary Magazine, July-August 2008

Ever since a defector exposed the existence of Iran’s nuclear program in 2002, the regime in Tehran has routinely protested its innocence in the face of charges that it is developing fissile weapons of mass destruction and the missiles on which to carry them. Its nuclear program, Tehran claims, has only civilian purposes, and it is allowed to pursue such a program under the terms of the binding international treaties to which it is a signatory.

If Iran is telling the truth and desires solely nuclear energy - which would be peculiar, to say the least, considering that under its sands rest the world’s second largest natural-gas reserves and the world’s fifth largest crude-oil reserves- its behavior these past six years makes no sense. The regime would seem to have had everything to gain from making it crystal-clear to the world that it has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons. Instead, it has rejected repeated and alluring incentives designed to seduce it into demonstrating the non-existence of the efforts it continues to insist it is not undertaking. In the process, it has had to suffer painful economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the United States. Its six years of defiance and stonewalling have led to increasing diplomatic isolation.

As a matter of simple logic, then, it is only rational to conclude that Iran is working, and working very hard, to become a nuclear power. But there may be logic of a different and no less compelling kind behind its actions. For, at the end of these same six years, many in the West remain fiercely committed to the idea that discussing the dangers of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power-let alone discussing how to stop it-represents a greater threat to the world than does the Iranian pursuit itself.

Read full story.

U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

Rediff reports Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is upping the pressure on parliament to pass a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States, and that Singh may even resign over the issue.

Read full story.

U.S. Air Force cultural revolution

In an op-ed in the New York Times, Max Boot talks about why the selection of an Air Force chief of staff whose background is in transportation and special operations shows that a cultural revolution is under way.

“The appointment of Gen. Norton A. Schwartz as the chief of staff of the Air Force last week is a historic first, one that could serve as inspiration for people who share his underprivileged background. General Schwartz is, you see, a cargo pilot. He started his career flying a C-130, the main transport aircraft of the Air Force, and he took part in the airlift of American personnel out of Saigon in 1975. He comes to his new job from a stint as the commander of the Pentagon’s Transportation Command, and he has also been the deputy commander of the Special Operations Command. His résumé may not raise eyebrows outside the Air Force, but among blue suits it is unique for a chief of staff. Flying fighter jets has been the formative experience of every chief of staff for the past quarter-century.”

Read full story.

Weapons of Mass Destruction made in Pakistan

The New York Times reports on new revelations about the nuclear proliferation network of the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. The paper reports investigators found blueprints for a compact, easily concealed nuclear device, which raises questions about who might have bought the weapons designs.

Read full story.