India gets nuclear submarine

India will launch its first nuclear submarine later this month, the Financial Times reports.

The submarine would add India to a short list of countries with the capability to launch a nuclear strike from the sea.

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Mossad says Iran to have nuclear weapon by 2014

The head of the Mossad has said that Iran will be able to launch its first nuclear weapon by 2014.

Meir Dagan, the Israeli intelligence agency chief, told a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “If the project has no technical glitches, and if Iran’s program does not malfunction in any way, they will have a bomb to launch by 2014. This is a significant existential threat for the State of Israel. We must distance this threat.”

Meir Dagan also said that the current unrest in Iran over the disputed results of last week’s presidential election was “an internal matter” and that it would soon die down. He said the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would make it easier for Israel to explain to the world the significance of the threat of Iran gaining nuclear capability. He also pointed out to the committee that it was actually the more moderate candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had actually started Iran’s nuclear program when he was prime minister.

North Korea Alert

Yonhap News Agency reports the United States of America and South Korea have increased their alert level toward North Korea and have ramped up surveillance following Pyongyang’s decision to scrap the treaty halting the Korean War.

The BBC has a news analysis attempting to gauge North Korea’s game plan. 

In a strategic paper published by the U.S. War Army College, experts Colonel Ray Midkiff and Dr. James Downey address the policy options available to influence North Korea.

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Israeli report: “Venezuela and Bolivia supply uranium to Iran”

Venezuela and Bolivia are supplying Iran with uranium for its nuclear program, according to a secret Israeli government report obtained by the news agency Associated Press (AP).

“There are reports that Venezuela supplies Iran with uranium for its nuclear program,” the document states, referring to previous Israeli intelligence conclusions. It adds: “Bolivia also supplies uranium to Iran.” The report concludes that Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is trying to undermine the United States by supporting Iran. Israel also suspects Iran of supporting the establishment of Hezbollah cells in northern Venezuela and the country’s Margarita Island.

President Chávez expelled the Israeli ambassador during Israel’s offensive in Gaza this year, and Israel retaliated by expelling the Venezuelan envoy. Bolivia also cut ties with Israel over the Gaza war.

The three-page document about Iranian activities in Latin America was prepared in advance of a visit to South America by deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon, who will attend a conference of the Organization of American States in Honduras next week. Foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman is also scheduled to visit the region.

Fears About Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

As militancy grows in Pakistan, U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

The Washington Times reports that the military controls the country’s nuclear stockpile, so any scenario that changes the balance of power in the military – from a coup to a Taliban takeover – could endanger the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

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Europe, Iran and the Bomb

The Transatlantic Institute proudly announces the publication of a new book:

“Under a Mushroom Cloud: Europe, Iran and the Bomb”
by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Published by Profile Books, London (2009)

Since Iran’s illicit nuclear programme was exposed to a stunned world in 2002, Tehran has defied the international community and continued to pursue its nuclear goals. What drives this seemingly apocalyptic quest? Are Iran’s aims rational or not? Under a Mushroom Cloud analyses this catastrophic and murky situation, and examines Iran’s dual-track approach of accelerating its nuclear activities while weaving itself ever more tightly into the fabric of the European economy. Thriving trade between Europe and Iran, and heavy European involvement in Iran’s energy industry, have weakened Europe’s will to impose robust sanctions – but imposing them is the only practical way of protecting Europe’s strategic interests and ensuring the stability of the region.

Under a Mushroom Cloud offers a clear and compelling answer to this dilemma. Drawing on extensive research, including interviews with senior officials and security and intelligence personnel from many countries involved in the effort to stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb, it provides a comprehensive account of a serious strategic threat to Europe, and offers an original list of practical recommendations for European policymakers who must confront it.

Click here to buy the book.

Advance Praise:

‘Under a Mushroom Cloud considers Europe as the prime mover vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear ambitions. How Europe will use this unaccustomed power is the big question at the heart of this timely book.’ François Heisbourg, Special Adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

‘This is an important contribution to the debate about Europe’s approach to Iran. As one would expect, Dr Ottolenghi has written a well-informed, perceptive and sobering book. I hope our European leaders, and those who study this potential flashpoint, will read what he has to say.’ General The Lord Charles Guthrie, Chief of the British Defence Staff (1997-2001), Colonel Commandant of the Life Guards and the Special Air Service

‘How to deal with Iran is one of the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day. Dr Ottolenghi provides a useful guide to the challenge and thoughtful suggestions on how to meet it.’ Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies and Vice-Principal, King’s College London

‘For almost three decades, conventional wisdom has presented Iran as a problem for the United States. In this seminal study, Dr Ottolenghi shows that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could be more of a threat to Europe, which, in one of those bitter ironies of history, has helped the Khomeinist regime not only to survive but also to build its arsenal of deadly weapons. A work of impeccable scholarship, this book is also a political wake-up call to European democracies.’ Amir Taheri, syndicated columnist, former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest daily paper 

U.S.-North Korea Missile Tests

Lieutenant General Patrick O’Reilly, currently director of the Missile Defense Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, says the United States has successfully passed scenarios testing its ability to use its missile defense systems to intercept missiles fired from North Korea.

The Korea Times reports North Korea, meanwhile, has pressed ahead saying it will soon fire a “satellite” into orbit.

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Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America’s most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists.

Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policy makers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters’ strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important published and unpublished essays – until now.

Edited by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski, Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter demonstrates not only the historical importance, but also the continuing relevance of the Wohlstetters’ work in national security strategy and nuclear policy.

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20th Annual U.S. Army War College Strategy Conference

The U.S. Army War College welcomes you to attend the Twentieth Annual Strategy Conference from April 14-16, 2009, in Carlisle, Pennsylvania at historic Carlisle Barracks.

While over the last decade a great deal of attention has been given to how information technologies are changing the strategic environment and shaping warfare, little has been mentioned about other revolutionary technologies, such as biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, in terms of their potential strategic impact. This conference will address that gap.

To register, please click here.

U.S. warns North Korea about possible missile test

A spokesman from the U.S. State Department spoke out on reports that North Korea may be preparing to test fire a long-range ballistic missile, saying such a move by Pyongyang would be “unhelpful and, frankly, provocative”. Intelligence and military officials believe it could be a long-range weapon capable of reaching the western United States.

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Russia-Ukraine Deal

Russia and Ukraine signed a deal this weekend that will get Russian gas flowing to Europe again and seems likely to end a weeks-long standoff over Russian gas exports.

The BBC explains the spat in a Q&A.

An American Strategy for Asia

by Dan Blumenthal and Aaron Friedberg

ASIA STRATEGY WORKING GROUP – American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

On the global shift in wealth and power toward Asia

The new U.S. administration confronts an unusually long and daunting list of pressing foreign policy problems: ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the continuing threat of global terrorism, a brewing crisis in Pakistan, unresolved nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea, Russia’s new aggressiveness toward its neighbors, and the lingering aftereffects of a global financial meltdown. All will demand urgent attention and timely action. The president-elect will be lucky if he has a moment to savor his victory, let alone to pause and reflect on the longer-term trends that are reshaping the world.

Yet such reflection is badly needed. As important as they undoubtedly are, all of the issues listed above are being played out against the backdrop of something even bigger: a massive, rapid shift in the distribution of global wealth and power toward Asia. This process has been gathering momentum for more than thirty years; if current projections are borne out, in the next thirty Asia’s rise will fundamentally alter the structure of the international system and the character of great power politics.

It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of what is taking place. The changes now underway are comparable in scale, and potentially in historical significance, to the “rise of the West” – the emergence of Europe as the world’s leader in wealth and military power – or the rise of the United States to global preponderance that began in the nineteenth century.

Such a profound shift will eventually require the reexamination, and ultimately the reorientation, of many aspects of America’s foreign, economic, and defense policies. These changes may be forced by events. Or they could be shaped by a clear and coherent national strategy, a plan of action that looks beyond today’s turmoil, sets broad goals, and identifies the tools and policies that will be necessary to achieve them.

The purpose of this report is to put forward an American strategy for Asia. While it is motivated by an awareness of long-term trends, the emphasis of this report will be on the concrete and practical. We intend not only to identify goals, but also to specify the steps that a new president should take over the next four to eight years to bring them closer to realization.

Our report differs from others on related subjects in two important ways.

First, it is focused rather than comprehensive. Instead of touching lightly on every conceivable subject relevant to Asia, we have chosen to concentrate on those that we believe to be of greatest strategic importance.

Second, our report is more candid than is typically the case about the challenges that are likely to emanate from Asia and, in particular, about those that may result from the rise of China. Our intention is not to be provocative, but rather to be clear. Ritualized “happy talk” about where China is headed will do little, if anything, to alter Beijing’s course. But unwarranted optimism on the part of our leaders may make it harder to maintain public support for the policies necessary to keep the peace and secure American interests, and it could set the stage for future disappointment and overreaction if exaggerated expectations of Sino-American friendship are not met.

We have been reminded in recent years how important it is not to overstate the magnitude and imminence of threats to our nation’s security, but it is at least as important to be clear and honest in acknowledging their existence.

Read full report.

India-France nuclear talks

After the U.S. House of Representatives voted this weekend to pass the U.S.-India nuclear deal (it still must pass the U.S. Senate), Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets today with French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss boosting civilian nuclear energy trade, the BBC reports.

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Asymmetrische Kriegsführung – Irans bedrohliche Marinedoktrin

Der andauernde Konflikt über das iranische Atomprogramm hat die Spannungen in der strategischen Region des Persischen Golfs erhöht. Auf der Grundlage seiner Erfahrungen während des iranisch-irakischen Krieges und jüngerer Konflikte im Irak, in Afghanistan und im Libanon hat die Islamische Republik eine umfassende Doktrin asymmetrischer Kriegsführung entwickelt. Gemeinsam mit der verstärkten Rolle der Revolutionswächter im Persischen Golf stellt sie eine zunehmende Bedrohung für die US-Marine und die Verbündeten der USA in der Golfregion dar.

Der iranische Militärexperte Fariborz Haghshenass, Mitglied der US-amerikanischen Denkfabrik Washington Institute for Near East Policy, hat eine umfassende Analyse der iranischen Marinedoktrin veröffentlicht.

Zum Artikel.

Scientists Test New Atom Smasher

Europe’s new Center for Nuclear Research made history today when it successfully tested the world’s largest particle accelerator. International debate over the safety of the device – which a minority of scientists argue could destroy the world – has intensified in recent weeks.

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The Swiss-Iranian-Lybian Nuclear Connection

The New York Times reports on the Swiss government’s decision to destroy a huge cache of files documenting the links between a family of Swiss engineers and nuclear scientists in Libya and Iran.

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The World of Tomorrow

In The Wall Street Journal, columnist Michael Barone reviews a new bestseller written by John Zogby: The Way We’ll Be.

“John Zogby is the maverick in the political polling fraternity, the guy who admits that he sometimes tweaks the rules and whose numbers are sometimes greeted with skepticism. He is also an original thinker and a perceptive observer of the American scene, especially as it is viewed from the far-outside-the- Beltway precincts of Utica, N.Y., where his Lebanese- immigrant grandfather ran a grocery store for years.

It is the social observer who comes to the fore in Mr. Zogby’s The Way We’ll Be, an attempt to describe, by way of polls, the American state of mind and to imagine what it portends. Along the way, Mr. Zogby sounds several themes. One is that Americans increasingly want variety in their consumer products and entertainment offerings. ‘They want choice, not imposition, and they are demanding to be treated as individuals,’ he writes. ‘Today’s beer drinker and movie watcher and rock music fan can personalize his or her refrigerator or DVD or iPod playlist as never before.”

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Bombing Iran or Living with Iran’s Bomb?

The Transatlantic Institute issued a report commissioned from defence and Middle East affairs analyst, Kassem Ja’afar. The report looks into the two scenarios described by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in a speech last August 2007: bombing Iran or living with Iran’s bomb.

To read the report, please click here.

India Nuclear Plans

 

The BBC previews meetings at which Indian nuclear officials will brief the United Nations on steps the country is taking to safeguard its nuclear facilities.

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Israel finances irrigation project in Senegal

A major new irrigation project developed by the Israeli embassy in Senegal is proving a boon for Senegalese farmers, The Christian Science Monitor reports.

“Mamadou Diouf says he hopes to expand drip irrigation in his village. ‘If this project works,’ he says, ‘we’ll have money to buy rice and vegetables. That’s why it’s so important.”

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The Tragic End of Bush’s North Korea Policy

In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, former US Ambassador to the UN, John R. Bolton, criticizes North Korea policy in the Bush administration’s final months.

“Maskirovka – the Soviet dark art of denial, deception and disguise – is alive and well in Pyongyang, years after the Soviet Union disappeared. Unfortunately, the Bush administration appears not to have gotten the word.

With much fanfare and choreography, but little substance, the administration has accepted a North Korean ‘declaration’ about its nuclear program that is narrowly limited, incomplete and almost certainly dishonest in material respects. In exchange, President Bush personally declared that North Korea is no longer a state sponsor of terrorism or an enemy of the United States. In a final flourish, North Korea has undertaken a reverse Potemkin Village act, destroying the antiquated cooling tower of the antiquated Yongbyon reactor. In the waning days of American presidencies, this theater is the stuff of legacy.”

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The Iranian Shell Game

by Emanuele Ottolenghi, director of the Transatlantic Institute
Published in Commentary Magazine, July-August 2008

Ever since a defector exposed the existence of Iran’s nuclear program in 2002, the regime in Tehran has routinely protested its innocence in the face of charges that it is developing fissile weapons of mass destruction and the missiles on which to carry them. Its nuclear program, Tehran claims, has only civilian purposes, and it is allowed to pursue such a program under the terms of the binding international treaties to which it is a signatory.

If Iran is telling the truth and desires solely nuclear energy - which would be peculiar, to say the least, considering that under its sands rest the world’s second largest natural-gas reserves and the world’s fifth largest crude-oil reserves- its behavior these past six years makes no sense. The regime would seem to have had everything to gain from making it crystal-clear to the world that it has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons. Instead, it has rejected repeated and alluring incentives designed to seduce it into demonstrating the non-existence of the efforts it continues to insist it is not undertaking. In the process, it has had to suffer painful economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the United States. Its six years of defiance and stonewalling have led to increasing diplomatic isolation.

As a matter of simple logic, then, it is only rational to conclude that Iran is working, and working very hard, to become a nuclear power. But there may be logic of a different and no less compelling kind behind its actions. For, at the end of these same six years, many in the West remain fiercely committed to the idea that discussing the dangers of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power-let alone discussing how to stop it-represents a greater threat to the world than does the Iranian pursuit itself.

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U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

Rediff reports Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is upping the pressure on parliament to pass a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States, and that Singh may even resign over the issue.

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U.S. Air Force cultural revolution

In an op-ed in the New York Times, Max Boot talks about why the selection of an Air Force chief of staff whose background is in transportation and special operations shows that a cultural revolution is under way.

“The appointment of Gen. Norton A. Schwartz as the chief of staff of the Air Force last week is a historic first, one that could serve as inspiration for people who share his underprivileged background. General Schwartz is, you see, a cargo pilot. He started his career flying a C-130, the main transport aircraft of the Air Force, and he took part in the airlift of American personnel out of Saigon in 1975. He comes to his new job from a stint as the commander of the Pentagon’s Transportation Command, and he has also been the deputy commander of the Special Operations Command. His résumé may not raise eyebrows outside the Air Force, but among blue suits it is unique for a chief of staff. Flying fighter jets has been the formative experience of every chief of staff for the past quarter-century.”

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Weapons of Mass Destruction made in Pakistan

The New York Times reports on new revelations about the nuclear proliferation network of the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. The paper reports investigators found blueprints for a compact, easily concealed nuclear device, which raises questions about who might have bought the weapons designs.

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La connaissance inutile

L’homme contemporain, même dans les pays à forte tradition démocratique, n’a pas la maturité qui correspond à ses moyens intellectuels et à ses connaissances.
(Jean-François Revel – Extrait d’un Entretien avec Pierre Assouline)

Ceux qui se souviennent du grand écrivain et philosophe iconoclaste Jean-François Revel, intellectuel de droite par excellence, au meilleur sens du terme (à l’instar de Julien Benda, auteur de La trahison des clercs), et fils spirituel s’il en est de Raymond Aron, n’auront sans nul doute pas oublié son pamphlet mémorable intitulé La connaissance inutile, qui dénoncait il y a vingt déjà, avec brio et un sens certain de la majesté dans le verbe, la pléthore néfaste pour le débat public d’informations et de connaissances superfétatoires.

Lors de son discours de réception du 31 janvier 2008, Max Gallo, élu par l’Académie française à la place laissée vacante par la mort de Jean-François Revel, déclarait en substance: “Mais qui est-il donc, ce Jean-François Revel? Un écrivain égal aux plus grands. Un écrivain français nourri par la sève rabelaisienne et voltairienne. Un lecteur de Saint-Simon et de Montesquieu, de Chateaubriand et de Tocqueville, de Taine, de Montaigne et de Proust. Un humaniste engagé dans les combats contre les totalitarismes, qui a toujours défendu la liberté d’expression et affirmé que le seul barrage au fanatisme meurtrier est de vivre dans une société pluraliste où le contrepoids institutionnel d’autres doctrines et d’autres pouvoirs nous empêche toujours d’aller jusqu’au bout des nôtres.”

Dans un article publié aujourd’hui dans le quotidien Le Monde, Jean-Michel Dumay reprend, sans y faire directement allusion, la thèse de Revel et l’étend pour ainsi dire aux nouveaux médias, notamment et surtout l’internet.

“Jamais ce que Pierre Teilhard de Chardin nommait ‘la température psychique de la Terre’ n’a été aussi élevée. Avec le développement du cyberespace, des réseaux, de la téléphonie mobile, le monde est devenu en quelques années un gigantesque océan tourmenté, envahi non plus seulement d’énergie et de matière, mais, la numérisation aidant, d’informations. De savoirs, de connaissances.”

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The Internet as a Political Tool

PostGlobal’s panelists look at the ability of online social networking to stir political change, following an Egyptian crackdown on some users of the website Facebook.

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