Updated probabilities of recession


If we did go into a recession, something that’s always possible for the U.S. or Europe, we could lower interest rates and expand the money supply without worrying about the price of gold. (Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs)

Dear Colleagues,

I have updated the probabilities of recession. You can find them here.

I have posted the probabilities, the data used, and a technical note.

If you have any questions or any problems accessing the information, please let me know.

Best,

Marcelle Chauvet

Director, Latin American Studies Program & Associate Professor
Department of Economics, University of California Riverside, CA 92521
Phone: (951) 827 1587
E-mail: chauvet@ucr.edu  
Homepage: http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/mc.htm

Areas of Expertise: Economic growth in the U.S. has become significantly less volatile since 1984 and recessions are occurring less frequently, Professor Marcelle Chauvet says. She has developed a real-time recession prediction model and is consulted frequently by the U.S. government, foreign governments and the international business community. Using that model she predicted the end of the 2001 recession 16 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research announced the recession was over. Chauvet’s research focuses on macroeconomics and econometrics, and she is particularly interested in measuring and explaining business cycles, monetary policy, modeling risk premia on financial assets and their interactions with the real economy, and understanding the dynamics of long-run growth and development.

Selected publications:

“A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” with Jeremy Piger, Forthcoming, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 2008.

“Forecasting Recessions Using the Yield Curve,” with S. Potter, Journal of Forecasting, 24, 2, 2005.

“Recent Changes in the U.S. Business Cycle,” with S. Potter, Manchester School, Vol. 69, No. 5, 2001, 481-508.

“An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switches,” International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 4, November 1998, 969-96.

“Calling the Business Cycle,” with James Hamilton and Kevin Hassett, The American Enterprise Institute Press, Forthcoming, 2008.

“International Business Cycles: G7 and OECD Countries,” with Chengxuan Yu; Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 91 No. 1, 2006, 43-54.

“Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crises ” The Asian Experience,” with Fang Dong, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 89, No. 1, 26-37, 2004.

Other Activities:

Associate Editor, Journal Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003 – present

Member, “Brazilian Business Cycle Dating Committee” (CODACE – Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos), Brazil.

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