I have updated the probabilities of recession. As of today, I have data up to June 2008. The probability of a recession is 63.5% in June. New data will be released on September 29th and I will update the probabilities then.
You can find the estimated probabilities of recession from 1959:02 to 2008:06 at:
Chair, Latin American Studies Program & Associate Professor
Department of Economics
University of California
Riverside, CA 92521
Tel: (951) 827 1587
Fax: (951) 827 5685