Updated probabilities of recession

Dear colleagues,

I have updated the probabilities of recession.  As of today, I have data up to June 2008. The probability of a recession is 63.5% in June. New data will be released on September 29th and I will update the probabilities then.

You can find the estimated probabilities of recession from 1959:02 to 2008:06 at:



Marcelle Chauvet


Marcelle Chauvet
Chair, Latin American Studies Program & Associate Professor
Department of Economics
University of California
Riverside, CA 92521
Tel: (951) 827 1587
Fax: (951) 827 5685

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